Temporal Changes in Retreat from Marriage in Asia

مقالات آماده انتشار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

Department of Demography, University of Tehran and National Institute for Population Research, Tehran, Iran

چکیده

Background and Aim: Marriage has historically been a cornerstone of societal organization in Asia; however, recent decades have witnessed a significant "retreat from marriage," reflected in delayed marriage and rising proportions of individuals who remain never married into midlife. This study aims to analyze the retreat from marriage in Asia, focusing on changes in its prevalence and identifying the socio-economic and cultural driving forces behind this trend.
 
Data and Method: Data were sourced from various United Nations agencies, covering 50 Asian countries from 1970 to 2020. The study applies event history analysis techniques. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were used to examine the probability of countries remaining in a state of universal marriage over time. Discrete-time hazard models were estimated to identify factors associated with transitions away from universal marriage.
 
Findings: The findings show that 52% of countries experienced a retreat from marriage among women, compared to 46% for men. Urbanization, predominant religion, and regional differences significantly influenced marriage trends, with notable gender disparities. The study highlights the relevance of gender role and modernization theories in understanding contemporary marriage trends.
 
Conclusion: By providing a broad comparative perspective on the retreat from marriage in Asia over five decades, this study offers insights that can inform policymakers regarding the cultural, geographic, and socio-economic dynamics affecting marriage patterns and family structures.
 
Key Message: The findings underscore the need for context‑sensitive analyses and policies that recognize both structural pressures and enduring social norms in shaping marriage behavior in Asia. Consequently, effective policymaking requires designing gender-specific interventions while accounting for the strong moderating role of religious and regional family norms.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Temporal Changes in Retreat from Marriage in Asia

نویسنده [English]

  • Fatemeh Torabi
Department of Demography, University of Tehran and National Institute for Population Research, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Background and Aim: Marriage has historically been a cornerstone of societal organization in Asia; however, recent decades have witnessed a significant "retreat from marriage," reflected in delayed marriage and rising proportions of individuals who remain never married into midlife. This study aims to analyze the retreat from marriage in Asia, focusing on changes in its prevalence and identifying the socio-economic and cultural driving forces behind this trend.
 
Data and Method: Data were sourced from various United Nations agencies, covering 50 Asian countries from 1970 to 2020. The study applies event history analysis techniques. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were used to examine the probability of countries remaining in a state of universal marriage over time. Discrete-time hazard models were estimated to identify factors associated with transitions away from universal marriage.
 
Findings: The findings show that 52% of countries experienced a retreat from marriage among women, compared to 46% for men. Urbanization, predominant religion, and regional differences significantly influenced marriage trends, with notable gender disparities. The study highlights the relevance of gender role and modernization theories in understanding contemporary marriage trends.
 
Conclusion: By providing a broad comparative perspective on the retreat from marriage in Asia over five decades, this study offers insights that can inform policymakers regarding the cultural, geographic, and socio-economic dynamics affecting marriage patterns and family structures.
 
Key Message: The findings underscore the need for context‑sensitive analyses and policies that recognize both structural pressures and enduring social norms in shaping marriage behavior in Asia. Consequently, effective policymaking requires designing gender-specific interventions while accounting for the strong moderating role of religious and regional family norms.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Asia
  • Event history analysis
  • Gender
  • Marriage
  • Modernization
  • Religion

مراجع

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